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Britain will have to choose on China
China’s post-Covid economic rebound has surpassed market expectations, with a 4.5 per cent expansion in GDP in the first quarter of the year. Strong growth in exports and infrastructure investment, as well as a rise in retail consumption and property prices, is driving the recovery after the economy was hit by a forlorn effort to eradicate the coronavirus.
The Chinese government missed its own target of 5 per cent growth but economists expect the pace of recovery to pick up over the rest of the year. In normal circumstances, this would be considered a fillip to global economic growth to counter persistently high inflation, rising interest rates and sluggish expansion in the West.
But the world has moved on from the days when developed countries relied on sucking in vast quantities of cheap Chinese imports to fuel consumption. Xi Jinping’s effective presidency for life has been accompanied by a far more aggressive foreign policy that vies with America for superpower status.
China has long thrown its weight around in Africa but has recently sought to broker a new relationship in the Gulf between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is acting as a bulwark for Russia against criticism over the Ukraine invasion in exchange for cheap energy, which is fuelling its recovery.
Construction projects built under the Belt and Road initiative have established Chinese influence in Europe, where there is an unwillingness to follow the United States into a trade war. Emmanuel Macron drew opprobrium over his recent visit to Beijing, but he is effectively positioning France where David Cameron sought to place the UK 10 years ago with talk of a new “golden age” in Sino-British relations.
Where does this leave Britain now? Rishi Sunak has called Beijing a threat, but he is treading a fine line between avoiding uncoupling entirely from China while keeping the Americans on board when they want a tougher response, as with banning Huawei. The Prime Minister sees this as a pragmatic approach that defends the UK’s interests while focusing on a new post-Brexit trade pivot to the Pacific.
But France and other EU nations appear to have made up their minds that China remains an important trading partner and show no signs of following Washington’s lead. There will come a time when Britain will have to decide which side to take.
