The wrong choices on national defence

In what may well be his last parliamentary act as Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace briefed MPs on a “refresh” of the Integrated Review, published in 2021, to take account of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In truth, it has changed little. Indeed, as Mr Wallace pointed out, the principal threats we face were precisely those envisaged in the original review, notably that posed by Russia. His analysis about the need to modernise and equip the Armed Forces for future conflicts is unarguable, but there was no escaping a sense that the strategic dispositions would be different if more money were available.

In comments ahead of his statement, Mr Wallace said he would not reverse the cuts in the Army to 73,000 regulars. He said a larger force would have to be equipped. “Are you going to buy 300 armoured vehicles or am I just going to give them a pitchfork? I mean, that’s the choice,” he said. 

It is, indeed, a choice, but a deliberate one. The Government has decided to spend proportionately more on social programmes like health, care and welfare than it once did, and less on the defence of the Realm. It would be possible to have both a larger army and the proper equipment, but it would require cuts elsewhere which politicians are evidently not prepared to make because they fear it would lose them votes.

Until the end of the Cold War, we spent 5 per cent of GDP on defence annually. Now it is about 2 per cent and that includes some non-combat spending. Mr Wallace made it clear in his parting shot that he expected that to be raised to 2.5 per cent as indicated in the March Budget but yet to be confirmed. The Chancellor said it would only reach that when “fiscal and economic circumstances allow”. But it will only mean more money if the economy grows.

The consequences of the review are stark. Troop numbers are at their lowest for 200 years and the complement of battle tanks is being cut. Mr Wallace was unable to guarantee that the Army could put a sustainable armoured division into the field, though he said it was committed to doing so. A good deal of trust is being placed in future technologies, even though the war in Ukraine has turned into an old-style attritional conflict.

Mr Wallace has fought some doughty campaigns to stop Treasury cheeseparing hitting the budget even more. But the old maxim that “to govern is to choose” holds good and we are making the wrong choices.