This is a critical month for Ukraine

Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive against Russia appears to have begun in earnest. Thousands of troops, with about 100 tanks and other armoured vehicles provided by Nato, poured through the front line at Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Bakhmut. Kyiv’s immediate war aim seems to be to sever Russia’s links to the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014. 

Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said the push had yielded “very good results” with the promise of more details showing success to come. This is now the big test for Ukraine’s armed forces after months of heightened expectations. The American government has been told it could take up to three weeks for the operation to push the Russians out of heavily fortified positions, which they have spent months reinforcing. 

Ukraine appears to have taken advantage of turmoil in the Russian ranks after Moscow’s local commander, Major General Ivan Popov, was removed from command for criticising the conduct of the war. The Americans, who will be helping provide satellite intelligence, say the Russians are still experiencing problems with logistics. 

Kyiv’s forces include German Leopard tanks, and the assault comes just days after a leaked Bundeswehr assessment suggested the Ukrainian offensive was foundering. It blamed Ukrainian forces for splitting their brigades into small units of just 10 to 30 soldiers to attack an enemy position. This was negating the advantages that Ukrainian troops had over their Russian counterparts in terms of Western training and firepower. 

The Bundeswehr paper claimed Kyiv had an entrenched “operational doctrine” that had failed to internalise Western tactics. It said Ukrainian commanders’ deficiencies sometimes lead to “wrong and dangerous decisions”. 

These would be serious shortcomings given the amount of help being funnelled to Ukraine from Nato countries. Any serious push-back by the Russians will play into the hands of those who fear the war is potentially an open-ended drain on Western resources. 

If the Ukrainians have now committed the bulk of their forces to an assault, their commanders know the window for any major advances is narrow. It will start to close as autumn sets in and the terrain becomes too muddy. The next few weeks will be crucial for the future of Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s prospects for survival in the Kremlin.