Putting our winter weather into perspective

No sooner has Storm Isha departed our shores, leaving a trail of damage in its wake, than we are being alerted to another, named Jocelyn. These are what we used to call winter gales and are common in January. The prevalence of these storms is adduced as evidence of the rapid advance of climate change. Isha was the ninth named system since September, whereas last year there were only two. With another on the horizon, the 2023/24 season will be the stormiest ever.

But will it be? Naming storms only began in 2015. The next system, Jocelyn, is forecast to have wind speeds far lower than Isha, so why is it also being given a name? In fact, it has been named by the Irish Met Office, presumably because it will be more problematic for the Emerald Isle than for Britain. Other storms like Henk were named by Dutch or French meteorologists.

To assert that we are having more storms – and more violent ones – than in the past is tendentious since their assumed regularity is a function of naming them. As with all storms, moreover, some are more destructive than others. How long before the Met Office announces different categories for named storms, as with hurricanes?

This constant weather doom-mongering gives the impression we live somewhere dangerous when in fact our climate is remarkably benign. Yet hardly a week goes by without warnings that affect the way people behave, lead to train cancellations in advance, and are accompanied by appeals not to venture out or sit near a window. In the American Mid-West recently, more than 80 people died after temperatures plummeted to considerably below freezing. We need to get our winter weather into proportion.